Nifty Watch:- Today nifty open gap up at 5470 with a gain of 47 points, And remain in a range between 5450-5510, finally in the last trading hour Nifty faces a decline of 80 points and closed at 5429, very near to last day close.
Trend:- Today’s market shows an intermediate downtrend. Forming pattern of lower highs - lower lows and also market is trading below its 200 days and 50 days moving average.
TA Insync is now oversold. Thus we can expect a relief rally soon enough.
Level:- Looking for support first at 5380 and then at 5350. The resistance comes at 5510.
Summary:- Today’s market shows some bullishness at its start but at the end it closed near to previous day closed.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Market Outlook for 3 2 2011
Markets shed all its intraday gains towards the close. Mr. A. Raja’s arrest by CBI triggered the change in sentiments as Nifty suddenly shed about 50 points in a matter of 15-20 minutes. But, whatever the reason, fact is that Nifty is unable to sustain higher levels and this is in a backdrop of persistent positive global cues. There were a number of stocks that did find buying support at lower levels, be it on short covering or value buying. But, there were more stocks that weighed heavily on the indices. Hero Honda reacted negatively to its numbers and was the biggest drag on indices. Other index losers were NTPC, Bhel, Bajaj Auto and HDFC.
Nifty failed to move past 5500 and closed almost unchanged at 5430. Despite, the late sell-off we continue to be of the view that Nifty is unlikely to sustain below 5400 and this level is likely to provide a strong support even if a temporary one. On an intra-day basis we might slip to around 5350 but closing is unlikely below 5380-5400. RIL is witnessing strong volumes around Rs 900 and a move above 930 could take it to around Rs 965-970. Volatility is likely to be on higher side as market tries to find a bottom.
Nifty has immediate support around 5380 and then around 5350 while resistance is likely around 5485-90 and then around 5550-60.
Nifty failed to move past 5500 and closed almost unchanged at 5430. Despite, the late sell-off we continue to be of the view that Nifty is unlikely to sustain below 5400 and this level is likely to provide a strong support even if a temporary one. On an intra-day basis we might slip to around 5350 but closing is unlikely below 5380-5400. RIL is witnessing strong volumes around Rs 900 and a move above 930 could take it to around Rs 965-970. Volatility is likely to be on higher side as market tries to find a bottom.
Nifty has immediate support around 5380 and then around 5350 while resistance is likely around 5485-90 and then around 5550-60.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Today Advise
The markets seem very irrational in the short term, but are very rational in the long term. It is this paradox that confuses most traders. – Rashesh Shah
Nifty Detail View on 2 2 2011
Nifty Watch: - Today Nifty open with gap up at 5542, and then faced a big decline almost after open. We saw an one sided trend, with the Nifty finally closing almost a 100 points lower at 5423 point, giving a decline of 119 points from its open. Today’s close (and low) is the lowest point of nifty since 31 August 2010.Today’s market ends the rally which started from Sep 2010. Thus, in a period of six months, the markets have come full circle, first going up, and, now giving up all the gains.
Trend:- The Market is in an intermediate downtrend. We have the pattern of lower highs - lower lows and also market is trading below its 200 days and 50 days moving average.
The Nifty has not yet touched the level of minus 45 on TA Insync (55-5) which means market is still not oversold.
Level:- Looking for support first at 5380 and then at 5220. The resistance comes at 5470 and then 5540.
Summary:- Today’s market made a new low since August 2010. A large consolidation during June – August had a low of 5350. If the Nifty were to break below this low, we would be in a bear market. We feel that lower levels are coming. The world is de-rating the Indian markets. Even today, the Nifty sells at a PE of 21 while most emerging markets sell at much lower PE ratio. We have to accept the fact that the India Story while remaining intact is no longer a glamour story. Investors can wait for lower levels and base building while traders should go with the intermediate trend which is down. Traders should also be ready for a sudden, sharp relief rally that can come about any time.
Trend:- The Market is in an intermediate downtrend. We have the pattern of lower highs - lower lows and also market is trading below its 200 days and 50 days moving average.
The Nifty has not yet touched the level of minus 45 on TA Insync (55-5) which means market is still not oversold.
Level:- Looking for support first at 5380 and then at 5220. The resistance comes at 5470 and then 5540.
Summary:- Today’s market made a new low since August 2010. A large consolidation during June – August had a low of 5350. If the Nifty were to break below this low, we would be in a bear market. We feel that lower levels are coming. The world is de-rating the Indian markets. Even today, the Nifty sells at a PE of 21 while most emerging markets sell at much lower PE ratio. We have to accept the fact that the India Story while remaining intact is no longer a glamour story. Investors can wait for lower levels and base building while traders should go with the intermediate trend which is down. Traders should also be ready for a sudden, sharp relief rally that can come about any time.
Market Outlook for 2 2 2011
Market opened on a flat note but saw huge selling immediately especially in stocks like Tata Motors whose monthly sales figures disappointed the markets in a big way. Yesterday’s gainers like Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank and SBI gave up all its gains.
Weakness and heavy selling by FIIs in Tata Motors and Reliance broke the strong Nifty Support of 5425 and the market finally closed on a very weak note. The factors which are affecting the market in a big way are the macro concerns like interest rates, inflation figures and serious governance deficit which has weakened the sentiments in a very big way. ADAG stocks witnessed fresh bouts of selling as Reliance Infra closed below Rs.700 and Reliance Capital made an intraday breach of Rs.500. Titan made some brave attempts to rally but that too faced a lot of resistance around 3650 levels. The only stocks which showed some decent buying were HDFC and HDFC Bank.
There is very little one can do at this stage and hence it would be prudent to stay on sidelines. Bottom picking the market would be like catching a falling knife. Hence, we are of the view that one should not invest fresh money in the market till the time markets make a higher bottom atleast on the hourly charts. Nifty will now face strong resistance at 5450 and 5485 levels. It might find some support around 5350 levels and if this level is broken, the next important support lies only at 5295-5310 levels.
Weakness and heavy selling by FIIs in Tata Motors and Reliance broke the strong Nifty Support of 5425 and the market finally closed on a very weak note. The factors which are affecting the market in a big way are the macro concerns like interest rates, inflation figures and serious governance deficit which has weakened the sentiments in a very big way. ADAG stocks witnessed fresh bouts of selling as Reliance Infra closed below Rs.700 and Reliance Capital made an intraday breach of Rs.500. Titan made some brave attempts to rally but that too faced a lot of resistance around 3650 levels. The only stocks which showed some decent buying were HDFC and HDFC Bank.
There is very little one can do at this stage and hence it would be prudent to stay on sidelines. Bottom picking the market would be like catching a falling knife. Hence, we are of the view that one should not invest fresh money in the market till the time markets make a higher bottom atleast on the hourly charts. Nifty will now face strong resistance at 5450 and 5485 levels. It might find some support around 5350 levels and if this level is broken, the next important support lies only at 5295-5310 levels.
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