Monday, February 14, 2011

Stock To Trade 15 02 2011

  • BRFL :- Oversold BRFL Insync. Buy with stop loss below 238.
  • IDBI :- TA Turtle upside breakout in IDBI 30 min. chart. Buy with stop loss below 135.
  • OBC :- NR7 bar pattern in OBC. Buy above 340, Sell below 330.

TWO DAYS OF RALLY, NIFTY AT 5450 RESISTANCE

Nifty Watch:- One more Monday, the first day of the week - the Nifty opened at 5340 approx then rallied throughout the day to close at 5450 with big intraday gains. After today's gains, the Index has added almost 280 points from Friday's intraday low to Monday's close. This means about 280 points in one trading day - momentum that is not likely to be sustained. So, what is the outlook?

1. After almost seven weeks of declines, the Nifty is oversold, ready for a correction on the upside. The current upmove is probably that correction.
2. Time Correction: The up move may last anywhere between three to four weeks, in terms of time.
3. Price Correction: markets have fallen by 1050 points approx. A correction can see the Nifty rally by 400 to 550 points, giving targets of 5580 to 5730 approx. These are only estimates.
4. A two day rally has seen gains of 280 points. We can safely assume that markets will consolidate for a few days before resuming their advance. It is also possible that the Nifty may remain in a trading range fortwo or three weeks, thus completing the time correction, without hitting the price targets.

Level:- Looking for support first at 5410 and then at 5380.. The resistance comes at 5460, then 5500.

Market Outlook for 15 02 2011

After a long time did we see strongly up trending day as Nifty not only managed to sustain the positive gap, it also built on the gains as the day progressed. Nifty galloped more than 150 points and closed at the highest point of the day. All round buying was see as most sectors finished the day with sharp gains. Banks rallied sharply for the second successive and Capital Goods sector too saw solid gains. L&T was the biggest gainer amongst the index heavyweights. Some of the big movers for the day were United Spirits, PTC, TVS Motors, Tech Mah, Educomp, Apollo Tyres, Jet, IVRCL Infra, Balrampur Chini, GMR Infra, HDIL, Opto, Havells, JP Associates, Welcorp, KFA, Bajaj Hind, Suzlon, BGR Energy, Jindal SAW and KTK bank. Breadth was extremely positive and for a change it was difficult to spot losers though some pressure was seen in RIL, DLF and Rcom. Such strong and sharp rebound has been witnessed for the first time since Nifty started its southward journey from the levels of 6180-6200 in the first week of January. In the two days Nifty has bounced back almost 300 points from the intra day lows of Friday. Nifty is likely to face resistance around 5510-25 and could retreat from around these levels. Most of the stocks that have seen sharp rebounds are approaching decent resistance levels and one needs to be a bit cautious in taking long positions in these. Certain stocks that could still see higher levels are Welspun Corp, HDFC bank( to around 2145-2160), Sesa Goa, TCS and REC.

Nifty has immediate support around 5370-80 and then around 5310-25 while key resistance is likely around 5510-25.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Todays Sentence

At the start of a bear market, nobody knows it is a bear market – they just think it is a correction – Marc Faber

Investment Idea

VIP INDUSTRIES

Present Price - Rs.505.50, Buy Above – Rs.513, Projected price – Rs.552

VIP Industries manufactures a range of hard-sided and soft-sided luggage including trolleys, suitcases, duffels and overnight travel solutions, executive cases, backpacks and school bags. Some of its brands include VIP, Alfa, Footloose, and Buddy. The moulded furniture division manufactures chairs, tables, stools and shells of plastic, marketed under the brand VIP Moderna. The company’s manufacturing facilities are located at Nashik, Nagpur, Sinnar, and Jalgoan in Maharashtra, and in Haridwar (Uttarakhand). Rising disposable incomes driven by buoyant GDP growth coupled with a shift towards better lifestyle ensures strong growth for the luggage industry. VIP, the leader, with a 60% market share, is fully geared to capitalise on the same.
On the technical front, the stock has formed a Morning Star Pattern which has strong bullish implications.
Buying is advised above Rs.513 for a target of Rs.552.