Thursday, March 31, 2011

Market Outlook 01 04 2011

Markets celebrated India’s march to WC Finals by extending its amazing rally to eighth successive day. The trading session had its ups and downs as did the Semi Finals match against archrivals Pakistan. Nifty zoomed up by more than 80 points before giving up all its gains later in the day. But, short covering and some 31st March buying by institutions lifted the indices once again towards the close. Nifty ended the session as well as the March series of derivatives at 5833. Nifty gained 570 points in the March series, more than 10% rise. In the last 8 days itself Nifty has put on almost 500 points. Again, it was an all round show though IT heavyweights hogged the limelight. IT index was up 2% as strong rally was seen in TCS and Infosys. Banks witnessed some profit taking at higher levels as Bankex finished the day in negative territory. Some of the top gainers for the session were Adani, RPower, Hexaware, Cummins, HDIL, Reliance Infra, Welcorp, Polaris, Sobha, Apollo Tyres, DLF, Bajaj Auto, ITC, FT and Hero Honda. SBI led the list of losers by shedding more than 3% on heavy volumes.

Some other losers were Indusind Bank, Jet Airways, ABB, HCC, Yes Bank, Educomp, Onmobile, IOB, Ambuja Cement and IVRCL. It was an amazingly good series for the bulls as the sharp rally seen over past 8 sessions may not have been comprehended by even the staunchest bulls. Month of March that is notorious for its bearish undertones provided much needed relief to the eleaguered bulls as Nifty gained around 10%. Nifty is now trading above 5800 and the momentum indicators are now in overbought territory. Nifty has moved past the expected resistance zone of 5730-5770 and now this band should provide short term support to any decline. The rally has been extremely sharp and it would be difficult to take a call on resistances but now the immediate threat to the rally is placed around 5900. Banks have been the leaders thus far and today’s behavior of Banking heavyweights suggests some halt in the uptrend. We are entering a new series and new month and would need to take a fresh guard as far as trading is concerned. Some stocks that have seen fresh breakouts are RPower, HDIL, Hexaware, Hero Honda( above 1610), FT( above 890), Exide( above 143) and RIL( above 1055). Nifty is now trading above crucial levels of 5750-70 and this should provide strong short term support while resistance is seen around 5900.

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