Monday, April 25, 2011

Market Outlook 26 04 2011

It was a better week for the markets as both global cues as well as the domestic corporate results helped the bullish bias. Global markets were in fine fettle as sliding dollar index boosted the commodities. Back home, after the shocker from Infosys there were no such unpleasant surprises this week. HDFC Bank, Yes Bank, Indusind Bank posted good numbers and helped the banking stocks to regain positive momentum. TCS came with good results that were inline with the expectations and so the stock witnessed huge volatility and some profit taking at higher levels. RIL declared its numbers after the market hours on Thursday. Results were below expectations as GRMs came in below the market expectations. However, the company also announced some encouraging gas and oil discoveries and that might just help the stock to sustain around current levels. Last week’s best performing sectors were Autos, Oil & Gas and metals while at the bottom of the ladder were Capital Goods, mainly on account of BHEL’s underperformance. Maruti is coming out with its results on Monday and that may have its impact on the Auto universe. Auto companies have been witnessing record sales but the margins would be keenly watched. Technically, Nifty reversed directions from around 5700 and that happens to be the 200 DMA also. Nifty is witnessing huge volatility between 5700 and 5950 as markets reacts to global cues as well as corporate announcements on day-to day basis. The range between 5900 and 5950 is providing stiff resistance and this could continue to be the case even for next week as we enter the last week of current F&O series. Volatility is likely to persist. 5830-40 is the immediate support for Monday but the significant resistance is seen around 5770-5780. The heavyweights are displaying contrasting trends. HDFC and HDFC Bank are positively biased and sustained trades above 732 and 2410 respectively could open up meaningful higher targets. TCS witnessed profit taking around 1240-1250 that also happens to be its all time high. But, the stock remains in uptrend and is likely to find strong support around 1140-1150. Bharti too confronted some profit taking at 375-380 but this is another heavyweight that seems to be headed higher and is a Buy on dips counter. SBI is interestingly poised as sustained trades above 2850 would mean a breakout from around 6 months range.

The stock could than rally to around 3025-3050 over next 2-3 weeks. On the other hand, Infosys continues to struggle and may not move further than 2960-2980. RIL faces stiff resistance around 1050-1060 and is unlikely to pose any threat to this resistance going by the below expectations results declared on Thursday. Auto and Metal heavyweights are in a side ways mode. Amongst the other sectors, Tyres and textiles rallied sharply over last two sessions. MRF and Apollo tyres have broken out from their respective trading ranges. MRF could rally to around Rs 8200 while Apollo has next resistance around Rs 79-80. Arvind Ltd has moved to around 3 years’ high and showing great momentum. Next technical target is around Rs 90-92 but the broad structure suggests great potential over next 9-12 months. Alok could target Rs 29.50-30 and then Rs 34. The textile stocks are showing good bullish structures and it seems that most pure textile stocks are headed for out performance in medium term.

Nifty has immediate support around 5830-40 while resistance is seen around 5920-35.

No comments:

Post a Comment