Stock To Trade 06 05 2011

• Bank of Baroda 845.1 TA Turtle breakdown in bank of baroda 30 min chart, sell with stop loss above 860.
• HUL 3 balck crow candlestick pattern in HUL daily chart and TA Insync 55,5 is also moving down. Sell with stop loss above 272.

DERIVATIVE PICK 06 05 2011

HDFC BANK ( CASH – Rs.2220) : The stock is trading at its critical support level area of around Rs.2210 and once it starts trading below Rs.2207, we can expect the stock to decline further. Selling is advised below Rs.2205 for a target of Rs.2189 and Rs.2172. Lower target of Rs.2165 and Rs.2156 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.2231 should be kept. ORCHID CHEM ( CASH – Rs.297.70) : The stock has made a lower top and we expect selling pressure to intensify. Selling is advised below Rs.291 for a target of Rs.285 and Rs.280. Lower target of Rs.275 and Rs.272 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.301 should be kept.

Market Outlook 06 05 2011

Markets opened on a steady note and Nifty did look like settling above 5500. Considering the fact that indices had to contend with a weak opening in Bharti after lower than anticipated profits Nifty did look like finding its feet just around the 5525-5550 zone. But, it was not to be as after trading listlessly in a tight zone Nifty began to lose ground during the mid session. The downtrend gained momentum from thereon as more and more stocks came under fresh bear assault. Most of the metal counters were weak as were the Realty counters. Heavyweights

like HUL, ICICI, HDFC, Infosys, Bharti , Sterlite , ITC and NTPC struggled and put the indices under immense pressure. The Cement counters continued to be under bearish spell and lost more ground. Hero Honda found buyers and was up more than 6% after management indicated that the company has been able to maintain good margins despite lot of different pressures. It was a decent day for RIL too as the stock was up almost 2% during the day before shedding almost half of its gains towards the close. BOI, Apollo Tyres, MRF, Kotak, United Phosphorous, Tulip, Lupin and Titan were some of the other gainers. But overall, it was another day of bears’

dominance as Nifty closed below 5450. Nifty extended its losing streak for 9th consecutive session and contrary to our expectations there was no support around 5475-5500. Even the so called ‘over sold’ counters did not find any technical rebound and capitulated further. Globally too the things are cooling off a bit as has been seen in the case of most commodities. FIIs remain heavy sellers and that is keeping our markets under lot of pressure. Technically, Nifty has closed below 5500 and now the range between 5575-5610 becomes a strong short term

technical barrier. Out of the few heavyweights mentioned yesterday only RIL and ONGC remain in some sort of positive territory and could support indices. Metal counters continue to look weak. Bhel has seen breakdown today and could target Rs 1940-50. Overall, it seems that one should wait for markets to settle down and find its bottom before looking for trades on the ‘long’ side. Nifty has immediate support around 5415-20 and then around 5365-5370 while resistance is seen around 5515-25 and then around 5590-5610.

Stock To Watch 03 05 2011

• GT OFFSHORE 268.30 TA Insync is moving down in GTOFFSHORE. Sell with stop loss above 273.
• BHEL 2020.10 NR7 pattern in BHEL. Sell with stop loss above 2040.

Nifty breaks down its large trading range (5730 5900).

Nifty Watch:- Today Nifty opened at 5766. At the same time Nifty touched its day high at 5775 and then start moving down and touched it low at 5687 and finally closed at 5697 with a decline of 69 points to its day open.

Nifty breaks down its large trading range (5730-5900) and closed below it. Nifty is now at its previous low which is made on April 19 2011 at 5693. It may possible that nifty find its support and move up and it is also possible that nifty breaks down it.

Trend:- Nifty is breaks down its 200 days MA and closed below it. Nifty trading above to its 50 days MA.

Level:- Looking for support at 5600. Resistance comes at 5800.

TA Insync (55-5) is in downtrend. It is moving down at -19.39. This suggests that Nifty may move down also.

Summary:- Nifty breaks down its trading range and 200 days MA and moving down. Buying is not
suggested now, thus investors and traders should wait for a buy signal.

Market Outlook 03 05 2011

It was a poor opening for the week as Nifty slipped and closed below 5700. Banks and RIL weighed heavily on the indices. Banks in particular were the victims of nervous unloading before the RBI policy and downgrades of PSU banks by Morgan Stanley further aided the negative sentiments. SBI lost around 4% while deep cuts were seen in Bank Of India, Vijaya Bank, Canara Bank, Union Bank, Allahabad Bank, Uco Bank and PNB. Only Indian Bank and IOB managed top buck the overall trend. In fact, IOB was the biggest gainer amongst the F&O counters gaining over 5% with most of the gains coming in the last 40-45 minutes. RIL continued to drift lower and lost another 2%. Cairns and Bharti did manage to support the falling indices but didn’t have any support from other index constituents. Few others that were amongst the gainers were Chambal Fert, HPCL, Unitech, Tata Power, Sintex, Alok and GSPL. Overall, the breadth was poor as declining counters outnumbered the advancing ones by a good margin.

Nifty closed below 5700 for the first time in more than a month and also made a new recent low at 5687. Things continue to look a bit negative as Banking index has also given a short term breakdown below 11450. The RBI policy could set the tone in the short term and more than 25bps rise in policy rates could aid the bearish sentiments. Many banking counters have seen breakdown on daily charts and the volumes have also been on the higher side. OMCs are showing positive intent for past few sessions and HPCL and IOC have seen breakouts on daily charts. More short term upside is likely if they sustain above Rs 343( IOC) and Rs 383( HPCL). Power Grid is interestingly poised and could be a breakout candidate if it moves past Rs 107.50. Some other that look positive are Sintex, Voltas, Sesa Goa, Cipla( above Rs 317), United Spirits( above Rs 1055) and Jet Airways.

Nifty has immediate support around 5660-70 and then around 5590-5610 while resistance is seen around 5745-50 and then around 5790-5810.

Stock To trade 02 05 2011

• BEML 699.80 TA Insync 55,5 is moving down in BEML daily chart. Sell with stop loss above 720.
• Financial Tech 862.15 NR7 pattern in Financial Technology. Buy above 870, Sell below 855.

Nifty trading at lower level of its trading range (5730 5900).

Nifty Watch:- Today Nifty opened at 5782. At the same time Nifty touched its day high at 5804 and then start moving down and touched it low at 5706 and finally closed at 5751 with a decline of 31 points to its day open.

Nifty breaks down its large trading range (5730-5900) but at the end Nifty came back in large trading range.

Trend:- Nifty is standing on its 200 days MA and trading up to its 50 days MA and still in trading range.

Level:- Looking for support at 5700. Resistance comes at 5900.

TA Insync (55-5) is in downtrend. It is moving down at -18.63. This suggests that Nifty may move down also.

Summary:- Nifty is trading at its 200 MA. It may possible that nifty find its support here and move up and it is also possible that nifty breaks down its 200 days MA and move down. But in both cases Nifty will trade in one direction and that will give the trading opportunity to the investors and traders.

Nifty print a pattern of NR 7 in monthly chart. This suggest that a big move may come in next month.

Market Outlook 02 05 2011

Last week turned out to be a bad one for bulls as Nifty closed lower on all 5 days of the week. The
momentum picked up on the last two days as Nifty collapsed from around 5825 levels to just around 5700. And this happened in a positive global backdrop as US markets moved to new post Lehman highs. The selling was seen across the board as finally bears asserted themselves as Bulls failed to take Nifty past 5930- 40 despite several attempts. Almost all sectors were under pressure with Realty again playing favorite with bears. BSE Realty index was down over 8% while Capital Goods lost around 4.5% as stocks like Bhel, Crompton Greaves and even L&T felt the pressure. Banking too was down around 3.5%. Only FMCG and Health Care bucked the overall trend and finished the week in green. Overall, nifty lost 2.3% and the broader trend too turned negative as small caps and mid caps also succumbed to bearish pressure. The short term side ways range has finally been settled in favor of bears. 5770-80 that was providing support in the short term has finally been broken and the only positive sign, if we may call that, was the fact that Nifty made an intra day low at 5706 that is marginally higher than the previous immediate low at 5693. But, the overall momentum and the technical picture of some of the key heavyweights suggests that we could be headed lower next week and could see some support around 5600-5625. Resistance on the higher side is likely around 5785-5800 and a relatively stronger one around 5835-40. Bank Nifty has slipped below 11500 and sustained trades below 11500 could potentially take it lower to around 10900-950. Some heavyweights that still retain the positive bias are Bharti, ONGC, ICICI and Tata Motors. Some of the mid caps that are showing positive bias are Opto Circuits, Lupin, Divis, Educomp ( above 485), Exide and Max India.

Nifty has immediate support around 5660-70 and then around 5590-5610 while resistance is around 5790- 5810.

Trading Call 28 04 2011

• ASHOKLEY (55.50) : Buy the stock with a stop loss of 52 for a target of 61/65.

Stock To Trade 28 04 2011

• ITC 193.95 NR7 pattern in ITC. Buy above 194, Sell below 191.
• ABB 855.00 Breakout in ABB from trading range. buy with stop loss below 840.

Nifty remains in a small range (58005900).

Nifty Watch:- Today Nifty opened at 5884. At the same time Nifty touches its day high at 5892 and then start move down and touches it low at 5819 and finally closed at 5831 with a decline of 53 points to its day open.

Nifty remains in small range from 5800 to 5900. Trading in a range require a unique concept of buying at support and selling at resistance. They have a high accuracy rate when traded properly.

Trend:- Nifty is trading up to its 200 and 50 days MA.

Level:- Looking for support at 5800. Resistance comes at 5900.

TA Insync (55-5) is in downtrend. It is moving down at -10.95. This suggests that Nifty may move down also.

Summary:- There is no point in trading a range if it is not wide enough. I advice to wait for a breakout or a breakdown.

Market Outlook 28 04 2011

The tug of war continued between bulls and bears as we approach the F&O expiry. The prospect of US Fed discontinuing the QE series kept the bulls in check as uncertainty still prevails as to which asset class would be impacted immediately once the bond purchases were discontinued. Nifty opened with a slight negative bias and that persisted throughout the session as unwinding was seen in certain heavyweights. Wipro’s numbers were in line with expectations but the guidance seems to have disappointed the street as stock lost around 4%. RIL too helped the bears as it slid below Rs1000 and closed almost at the day’s low at Rs 986.

Nifty has immediate support around 5825-30 and then around 5770-80 while above 5915-20 fresh momentum is likely. Some correction was also seen in banking heavyweights. Some of the prominent laggards for the day were Ambuja Cement, Exide, LITL, India Cement, JP Associates, Bhel, GVK and Reliance Infra. ONGC, ITC and Bharti were the ones that tried to balance out the bears. ONGC was the strongest of the lot as it rose around 2.5% to close on a 3- months’ high. Bharti too posted a new recent high before profit taking shaved off some gains. ITC hit all time high. Some of the other gainers were Bata India, Praj, Jindal Holding, Godrej Ind, OIL, Educomp and Max India.
Nifty finally closed at the lower end of the day’s range at 5833, down 35 points. Nifty continues to bounce up and down within a well defined range. Nothing much has changed technically after today’s session as we still have support around 5770-80 and strong resistance around 5910-30. ONGC did give a breakout from almost 3 months range and the pattern suggests targets of Rs 322-25 in the short term while over medium term it could target Rs 345-350. RIL has been moving in 995-1055 range but that has broken on the downside and sustained trades below Rs 1000 could take it lower to around Rs 960 and even Rs 940. Bata has seen a continuation breakout above Rs435 and could target Rs 465-470 over next few sessions. Some of the pharma counters like Lupin( above Rs 425), Biocon, Orchid and Divis are also showing positive bias.

Stock Trading CAll 27 04 2011

• POLARIS (207) : Buy the stock with a stop loss of 204-201for a target of 215 – 230.
• MOSER BAER ( 47.65):- Buy the stock with stop loss of 45 for a target of 51 – 56 – 60

Stock To trade 27 04 2011

• Crompton Greaves 280.70 NR7 pattern Crompton Greaves from 3 days. Buy above 282.50, Sell below 278.

Nifty locked in a small range (5800 5900).

Today Nifty opened at 5876 and moved down to 5792 then it consolidated for 2 hours and touched low at 5791 then it move up and touched its day high at 5893 and then came back to its day open and closed at 5864.

A breakout or breakdown is about to come since Nifty is locked in a narrow range (5800-5900) from last 3 days.

Trend:- Nifty is trading above to its 200 and 50 days MA.

Level:- Looking for support at 5800. Resistance comes at 5900.

TA Insync (55-5) is in downtrend. It is moving down at -2.47. This suggests that Nifty may move down also.

Nifty is inside a tight trading range. For position trader buying is suggested above 5900 with a stop of 5800.

Nifty View 26 04 2011

Upbeat: Metals, Auto & Auto Ancilliaries, Oil – All kinds, Shipping, Pharma
Neutral: Banks, Sugar , Real Estate
Downbeat: IT

Overall market direction: Rangebound between 5750 and 5950. The undertone is bullish. In the F&O
segment, 43 stocks are in a strong uptrend (ADX14 > 30 and DMIPlus14 > DMIminus14) while just 3 are in a strong downtrend.

Trading Strategy: Short term traders should go with intra day trades until a breakout in either direction.
Position Traders should buy for a few days/weeks since many stocks are giving signs of bullish bases / patterns. Short selling above 5750 is not recommended.

Stock to Trade 26 04 2011

• Hindalco 220.80 Hindalco making a bullish H&S pattern. Breakout at 223. Target at 250
• Maruti 1307 Maruti is making a bullish H&S pattern. Breakout at 1325. Target 1536.

INVESTMENT PICK 26 04 2011

AJANTA PHARMA
Present Price – Rs.236.90, Projected Price – Rs.275

Ajanta Pharmaceuticals Limited (APL) is a Mumbai based midsized pharmaceutical company. Its core therapeutic segments are: Nutraceutical, Cardiovascular, and Anti-microbial, Antitubercular, Ophthalmology, Diabetes, Dermatology, Gynecology and Ortho- Rheumatologic range. APL's manufacturing plants are replete with state-of-the-art equipment that follows all the cGMP laid down by WHO.
Ajanta has set up worldclass manufacturing facilities in India, Mauritius and Turkmenistan that are equipped with state-of-the-art infrastructure.APL manufactures and markets a number of OTC and ethical products, with a market spanning 50 countries across the world. Ajanta has identified the importance of R&D for long term sustainability quite early. Hence the company has made continuous investments in R&D. The main focus area for the company is New Drug Delivery System (NDDS) and new combinations. APL has a fullfledged R&D center in Mumbai – Advent with strength of 250+ scientists. 1380 product registrations in different markets and over 1029 more waiting in pipeline is an example of its strong capabilities in R&D field.
APL has been catering to various voluntary organizations and governmental institutions like the UNICEF, UNHCR, Government Health Departments, Defence Services and Hospitals. Its subsidiary in Mauritius produces dosage forms like tablets, capsules and Injections. Besides existing products, research and development is in full swing to evolve new molecular structures and formulations in many therapeutical segments. It has demarcated the global market into six zones, India, South-East Asia, Africa, West Asia, Europe and Central Asia. It now plans to enter the lucrative US markets. Ajanta’s current business model is tilted towards exports which contributes 60% of the total revenues. Once these new therapeutic segments start contributing and expanding reach in domestic market we believe that the company’s exports-domestic mix would be moderated at 50:50.
APL is a strong player in Africa, Asia and LatAm. After gaining expertise in semiregulated markets the company is now targeting world’s largest generic market (market size of ~$34 bn) – US for its next phase of growth. Ajanta Pharma has filed two ANDAs in FY10 from its USFDA approved facility at Paithan and expects approvals to come in 2HFY12. We believe that business from US would be a major push for Ajanta’s future growth however meaningful revenues from US would only come from FY13. Management expects to file five ANDAs annually from FY12 further driving momentum to the expansion plans of the company. The global life sciences manufacturing outsourcing opportunity is estimated at around US $20 billion and is expected to reach US $31 billion in 2010. India has emerged as a hub for global players due to the availability of world class facilities and quality products at competitive prices. In the R&D sector the
value of the outsourced business is expected to be about US$ 7 billion by 2011.

According to a McKinsey report, India will emerge as the 10th largest pharmaceutical market by 2015 overtaking Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey. From a market size of around US$ 7 billion, the Indian pharmaceutical market is projected to grow to about US$ 20 billion by 2015. In fact, the incremental growth of US$ 13 billon is likely to be the 3rd largest among all markets after US and China. According to Crisil Report, exports, which are expected to drive growth of Indian pharmaceutical market, are set to nearly treble over next 5 years. We expect Ajanta to report over Rs.565 cr for FY12 as topline and the estimated EPS could be in the region of Rs.54 plus. The current price discounts this by just 4.38 times leaving ample scope for appreciation. Investment is advised in this scrip for a period of six months plus. Long term investment with a 12 months plus perspective can expect even higher returns.

DERIVATIVE PICK 26 04 2011

• SINTEX ( CASH – Rs.176.65) : Buying is advised above Rs.180 for a target of Rs.184 and Rs.186. Higher target of Rs.190-192 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.174 should be kept. The time frame of the trade would be around 7-8 trading sessions.

• SESA GOA (CASH – Rs.323.75) : The stock has been moving up in a slow and steady manner. The 14 day RSI is consistently hovering above the crucial 60 level clearly indicating the strong bull grip in the counter. Buying is advised above Rs.325 for a target of Rs.329 and Rs.334. Higher target of Rs.340-342 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.316.95 should be kept. The time frame of the trade would be around.7-8 trading sessions.

Market Outlook 26 04 2011

It was a better week for the markets as both global cues as well as the domestic corporate results helped the bullish bias. Global markets were in fine fettle as sliding dollar index boosted the commodities. Back home, after the shocker from Infosys there were no such unpleasant surprises this week. HDFC Bank, Yes Bank, Indusind Bank posted good numbers and helped the banking stocks to regain positive momentum. TCS came with good results that were inline with the expectations and so the stock witnessed huge volatility and some profit taking at higher levels. RIL declared its numbers after the market hours on Thursday. Results were below expectations as GRMs came in below the market expectations. However, the company also announced some encouraging gas and oil discoveries and that might just help the stock to sustain around current levels. Last week’s best performing sectors were Autos, Oil & Gas and metals while at the bottom of the ladder were Capital Goods, mainly on account of BHEL’s underperformance. Maruti is coming out with its results on Monday and that may have its impact on the Auto universe. Auto companies have been witnessing record sales but the margins would be keenly watched. Technically, Nifty reversed directions from around 5700 and that happens to be the 200 DMA also. Nifty is witnessing huge volatility between 5700 and 5950 as markets reacts to global cues as well as corporate announcements on day-to day basis. The range between 5900 and 5950 is providing stiff resistance and this could continue to be the case even for next week as we enter the last week of current F&O series. Volatility is likely to persist. 5830-40 is the immediate support for Monday but the significant resistance is seen around 5770-5780. The heavyweights are displaying contrasting trends. HDFC and HDFC Bank are positively biased and sustained trades above 732 and 2410 respectively could open up meaningful higher targets. TCS witnessed profit taking around 1240-1250 that also happens to be its all time high. But, the stock remains in uptrend and is likely to find strong support around 1140-1150. Bharti too confronted some profit taking at 375-380 but this is another heavyweight that seems to be headed higher and is a Buy on dips counter. SBI is interestingly poised as sustained trades above 2850 would mean a breakout from around 6 months range.

The stock could than rally to around 3025-3050 over next 2-3 weeks. On the other hand, Infosys continues to struggle and may not move further than 2960-2980. RIL faces stiff resistance around 1050-1060 and is unlikely to pose any threat to this resistance going by the below expectations results declared on Thursday. Auto and Metal heavyweights are in a side ways mode. Amongst the other sectors, Tyres and textiles rallied sharply over last two sessions. MRF and Apollo tyres have broken out from their respective trading ranges. MRF could rally to around Rs 8200 while Apollo has next resistance around Rs 79-80. Arvind Ltd has moved to around 3 years’ high and showing great momentum. Next technical target is around Rs 90-92 but the broad structure suggests great potential over next 9-12 months. Alok could target Rs 29.50-30 and then Rs 34. The textile stocks are showing good bullish structures and it seems that most pure textile stocks are headed for out performance in medium term.

Nifty has immediate support around 5830-40 while resistance is seen around 5920-35.

Stock To Trade 19 04 2011

• EKC 83.30 EKC is moving in a narrow range and TA Insync 55,5 is overbought. Short below 82 with stop loss above 83.50.
• Castrol 478.50 NR7 bar pattern in Castrol India. Buy above 488 with stop loss below 478.

Nifty trading at the lower end of trading range.

Nifty Watch:- Today Nifty opened at 5824 and touches its high at 5897. After that Nifty move down and touches it’s low at 5722 and finally closed near to its day low at 5732 with a decrease of 92 points to its day open. Nifty is trading at lower end of its trading range (5950-5730). A breakdown at this level (5730) may lead to a down move.

Trend:- The short term trend is up. Nifty is standing on its 200 days MA. If nifty breaks its 200 days MA then we may enter in a downtrend.

TA Insync (55-5) is in downtrend. It is moving down at 17.51.This suggest that Nifty may move down also.

Level:- Looking for support at 5550. Resistance comes at 5950.

Summary:- Nifty is trading at the lower level of its trading range. Buying/Selling is suggested after the breakout or breakdown. Investor should wait for this.

Market Outlook 19 04 2011

It was a volatile opening to the week as market witnessed strong two-way movement. Markets moved up sharply in the morning session as Nifty moved to around 5900 again. But strong sell-off in key heavyweights at higher levels erased all the early gains in about 30 minutes. Since then it was a struggle for bulls as downward spiral gained momentum as the day progressed. Selling was almost across the board as all major sectors lost ground. Main losses were seen in heavyweights like DLF, HCL Tech, TCS, JP Associates, Sesa Goa, Hindalco, Tata Steel, L&T, Axis Bank and Infosys. Some of the prominent mid cap losers were Opto Circuits, Chambal, Max, Hind Oil, DCHL, Uco Bank, Welcorp, Orbit, Hexaware, HDIL, Polaris and Jindal Holding. Few stocks that did manage to buck the overall bearish trend were MRPL, Hotel Leela, Mundra Port, Jet Airways, GE Shipping, Indian Bank, Crompton and Canara Bank. Volumes were heavy while advances were outnumbered by the declining issues. Nifty failed to move past 5900 despite making another surprise attempt in the early part of the session. Volatility was on the higher side as bears gained control as the day progressed. Wide bars of past 3-4 sessions as well as the heavy volumes today seem to suggest that we could be heading lower to atleast test the weekly supports of around 5625-5640 mentioned yesterday. HDFC Bank came out with good results after market after hours and that may have some bearing on atleast banking stocks in the morning. But technically the banking heavyweights ICICI Bank, Axis and SBI have violated the short term supports at 1090, 1410 and 2760 respectively. So, one needs to take a cautious stance while trading on the long side. Metal stocks are also exhibiting weakness. DLF has seen sharp correction over last few sessions and is now in a heavily oversold state in hourly charts. A sharp rebound from around 228-230 cannot be ruled out in DLF. MRPL saw huge volumes and breakout on daily charts. Sustained trades above 73 could take it to around Rs 77 and even Rs 80. Few others that still look positive are Bajaj Auto, Crompton and ABB.

Nifty has immediate support around 5675-85 and a significant one at 5630-5640 while resistance is seen at 5785-90 and then around 5835-40.

STOCK TO TRADE 18 04 2011

• Cipla 322.10 Cipla moving in a trading range and TA Insync 55,5 is overbought. Sell below 317 with stop loss above 328.
• STER 171.45 NR7 pattern in STER buy above 173, Sell below 170.

Nifty is in a small trading range.

Nifty Watch:- Today Nifty opened at 5898 and touches its high at 5907. After that Nifty move down and touches it’s low at 5806 and finally closed near to its day low at 5814 with a decrease of 84 points to its day open.

Nifty is trading in a small trading range from 5730 to 5950. A breakout or a breakdown at these levels will decide the next move of the nifty.

Trend:- Nifty is trading above to its 50 and 200 days MA. The short term trend is up.
TA Insync (55-5) is in downtrend. It is moving down at 27.03.This suggest that Nifty may move down also.

Level:- Looking for support at 5730. Resistance comes at 5950.

Summary:- As nifty trading in a range so traders (investors) should take day trade only and also look for the breakout or breakdown at 5950 and 5730. This will give a big buying opportunity.

Market Outlook 18 04 2011

Contrary to the expectations the truncated week provided lot of excitement before closing with minor losses. After a lackluster Monday markets zoomed up unexpectedly above 5900 on Wednesday on strong speculative buying in Banks and IT stocks. But, the whole excitement and momentum fizzled out on Friday as two ‘I’s spooked the sentiments. In the morning it was Infosys that disappointed the markets by giving a dull future guidance. Resignation by Mr Mohandas Pai further dampened the spirits. Infosys lost over 10% in one of the worst post results performance by the scrip since 2003. Then came the inflation figures that were much above the expected levels and that triggered selling in interest rate sensitive like Banks and Realty. Banks that had led the rally on Wednesday lost almost all its gains as did Nifty that lost around 100 points. Some mid caps did continue to rally even on Friday but the momentum seems to be waning towards the close. The IT index was the biggest loser for the week while FMCG and Capital Goods indices were leading gainers.

Infosys provided fodder for the bears as Nifty retreated again form around 5925-30 levels. But it seems that more than the results the rising inflation figure as well as resilient Crude prices could play spoilsport for the bulls. The inflation figure of 8.98% has dashed all hopes of RBI not taking any policy action in its next meet. This might dampen the sentiments for one of the pillars of current rally, the banking stocks. Technically too the Nifty has now twice retraced back from the 5925-5940 resistance zone. As mentioned in Friday’s newsletter also that it would be prudent to wait for Nifty to settle above 5925-30 before taking fresh long positions. On the downside Nifty has support around 5750 and then around 5640-50. In fact, on weekly charts 5640-50 support is a crucial one. Some heavyweights that still are showing positive bias are ITC, Bharti and L&T. L&T closed above 1720 again on Friday and one could initiate longs with stop below 1675. Bharti has some resistance around 375-378 and beyond that it could target Rs 410-415. Some other charts that are bullish are IGL( above 323), Havells, GMDC(above 147), Bajaj Auto( above 1425), ABB( above 830), Crompton and Can Bank.

Stock To trade 15 04 2011

• TECH MAH 738.00 NR7 pattern in TECHM. Buy above 740, Sell below 728.
• BHEL 2237.90 TA Turtle breakout in BHEL 30 mins chart. Buy with stop loss below 2210.

Market resumes, uptrend above 5950.

Nifty Watch:- Today Nifty opened at 5747 and touches its low at 5735. After that Nifty move up at 5923 and finally closed at 5921 with a gain of 176 points to its day open. Today nifty hold its support at 5780 and move fast towards its resistance level at 5950. On Friday a
breakout at 5950 may see a new high for the nifty.

Trend:- Nifty is trading above to its 50 and 200 days MA. The short term trend is up.
TA Insync (55-5) is in downtrend. It is moving down at 31.73.This suggest that Nifty may move
down also.

Level:- Looking for support at 5780. Resistance comes at 5950 which is very near.

Summary:- If market open cheerful on Friday then buy call options of index heavyweight stocks.
Suggestions are ICICI Bank, Strike price-1120 L&T, Strike price-1700 Infosys, Strike price-3300 TCS, Strike price-1200 A general rule-Focus mainly on bluechips and index stocks. Try to avoide buying midcaps and smallcaps.

Market Outlook 15 04 2011

Markets shrugged of a weak opening as well as relatively negative global cues to zoom up sharply. The move that came as a pleasant surprise gained momentum as the day progressed. As mentioned in previous newsletter it was indeed Banks and IT heavyweights that led the sharp rally. L&T too was a big contributor as were Auto heavyweights like Hero Honda that gained over 7%. Nifty opened below 5750 but then crossed psychological and technical levels to finally close above 5900. It was highest recent close for Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. Both are now at the cusp of a breakout that could catapult both to sharply higher levels. Nifty faces some resistance immediately at around 5925-5940 and sustained trades above 5940 could open up potential targets of 6080 and 6220. Similarly Bank Nifty could move up strongly once it moves past 11900(cash) and 11960(Bank Nifty futures). Infosys kicks off Q4 results season on Friday and the kind of move we saw on Wednesday in Infosys as well as TCS suggests that results would be on the positive side.

Expected or better than results as well as guidance could further improve the overall sentiments. Infosys faces immediate resistance around 3325-3340 and beyond that we could potentially see target of around Rs 3480-3500. The other two heavyweights that are looking good are ICICI Bank and L&T. L&T was the surprise package on Wednesday and sustained trades above 1710-20 could take it to around Rs 1790-1800 and 1845-1860. Banking counters that are looking good are Indusind Bank, Yes Bank, IOB, Axis Bank( above 1460), Kotak ( above465) and Vijaya Bank( above 91). A word of caution though, as we are very close to the resistances it would be advisable to wait for the Nifty to settle above 5940 before initiating fresh long positions. Nifty now has support around 5860-65 and then around 5815-25.

Stock To Trade 13 04 2011

• BRFL 279.25 NR7 bar pattern in BRFL. Buy above 280, Sell below 277.
• Punj Lloyd 72.00 Overbought TA Insync in Punj Lloyd. Sell with stop loss above 75.

Suddenly, risk appetite has gone away. U.S. Markets, Silver are both falling

As I write this letter on Tuesday, April 12, evening, The S&P is trading at 1310, down 14 points,
about one percent, while Silver on the MCX is at 59,000 which is approx 2000 below Monday’s
highs. I assume that the small declines we are seeing are probably a correction after a sensational rally in Silver, and, a steady up move in Equity. But, for whatever it is worth, we do have a decline! Suddenly, people who were prepared to buy anything at any price became cautious. The message is: All markets correct. This is a theme that has helped me time and again.

When I extend the theme to the Nifty, here is what I get: A correction has started for the Nifty. This decline finds support at 5780 and then at 5550. It appears that 5780 will breakdown when markets open on Wednesday morning, therefore, we can expect a move towards 5550.

For the longer term, the Nifty has seen a rally from 2200 to 6335. This entire up move should
correct. But, we cannot say when this correction will take place. It could have started, or, maybe we will see new highs and then correct. Yet, if I believe that a deeper correction is inevitable, then I am holding back on investing in equity, waiting for lower levels.

Market Outlook 13 04 2011

The new week has begun on a negative note as Nifty slipped below 5800 on Monday. It’s a short
week as we have trading only for three sessions and that may have been the reason for lackluster performance on Monday. The volumes were also on the lower side. Crude continued to trend northwards while IIP data for Feb’2011 too failed to provide any positive surprises. Wednesday also might see a repeat of Monday as markets are again shut for trade on Thursday and on Friday trade opens just as Infosys kicks off Q-4 results season. So, we might continue to slide on account of profit taking. Nifty has support around 5750 but that might just be broken and we might see levels of around 5700. Most of the sectors are witnessing correction but one needs to watch out for IT and Banking sectors as these two could bottom out soon. TCS has support around 1045-50 while Infosys is trading just around its short term support.

Similarly ICICI bank has support around 1075-80 while Axis could find immediate support around 1370-85. Auto counters did see relatively sharp correction on Monday and this trend might continue. Here, early support is likely for Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda while some more correction is likely for 4-wheelers. Nifty has support around 5745-50 and then around 5685-5700 while resistance is likely around 5835-50.

TODAYS Quate

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to be a trader. In fact, some of the best traders whom I
knew down on the floor were surf bums. Formal education didn’t really seem to have much to do with a person’s skill as a trader. – Linda Bradford Raschke

STOCK TO TRADE 11 04 2011

• APIL 607.85 Alstom Projects building a trading range. stop loss at 585, Target at 689.
• Bombay Dyeing 398.75 Bombay Dyeing building a triangle . stop loss at 370, Target at 452.
• Canara Bank 632.60 Canara Bank made a double bottom. Stop loss at 615, Target at 720.
• Core Projects 337.75 Core projects making a trading range. stop loss at 311, Target at 365.
• Bharat Forge 358.20 Bharat forge is trading in a narrow range and TA Insync (55,5) is overbought. Sell below 355 with stop loss above 360.
• Kotak Bank 442.55 NR7 bar pattern in Kotak Bank. Buy above 449, Sell below 439

Nifty consolidation continues

Earnings may influence Index for coming two weeks The Nifty has started a correction. Support should come in around 5820 / 5780. We had suggested that long positions should be held unless the Nifty closed below 6850. The Index closed at 5842, almost at the cutoff number. Therefore, we will take 5820 as our cutoff number for Monday. After the first 15 minutes, if the Nifty is trading below 5820, then we should close all trading position in the Nifty and wait for support to emerge.

Short Term Trades: There are a number of F&O stocks now breaking out of consolidation patterns. These trades usually work out. We have given the charts with stoploss and targets. It is important to follow the market and then take such trades. If the market is falling, we annot go and buy blindly. Look for a stable market, then consider these trades.

Market Outlook 11 04 2011

Profit booking and winding up of positions saw the index slipping up in a slow and steady manner
throughout the day. The real damage came in the second half of the trading session when the key support level of 5870 of Nifty futures was broken. The weekend pressure and the truncated next trading week because of two trading holidays saw both investors and traders reducing the Exposure in the markets. Nifty now can slowly drop to its first strong support level of 5790-5800 and from there onwards the future course of action will be dictated by the first quarter results. Infosys comes out with its results on 15th and till then we are of the view that Nifty will be range bound between 5700 and 5900 with a slightly negative bias. Instead of buying and selling breakouts and breakdowns, one should make a strategy of buying supports and selling rallies. Lot of stock specific action will be seen as we now entering the quarterly results season. Since there will be a lot of volatility during this period we would very strongly advise to trade in lower volumes.

Nifty futures have strong support around 5808 and 5767 levels whereas it will face resistance at
5872 and 5899 levels.

Stock To Trade 08 04 2011

• HDFC BANK ( 2354.00 ) NR7 pattern in HDFC Bank. Buy with stop loss below 2340.
• PIRHEALTH ( 441.90 ) TA Turtle breakout in PIRHEALTH 30 mins chart. Buy with stop loss below 435.

Consolidating in narrow range, waiting for next move

The Nifty today, did virtually nothing, consolidating in a narrow range. Today was an NR7 day (narrowest range in seven days). We can expect a trending move tomorrow. Traders should be on the alert. Nifty chart is given below. Note the NR7 days painted in blue. Trending moves emerge from these patterns. The Bank Nifty chart is also given below. The Bank did not make an NR7. The pattern for the Bank Nifty resembles a pennant (small, pointed triangle) which is usually made half way in an up trend. Traders should buy the bank Nifty above 11,900 and avoid buying if it breaks below 11,540.

Stock To Trade

GLODYNE TECHNOSERVE
Present Price – Rs.456, Buy Only Above – Rs.463, Projected price – Rs.487/510

Glodyne Technoserve is one of the few domestic focused IT players with core competency in Application software services and Technology IMS (Infrastructure Management Services). The company derives about 80% of its revenue from technology infrastructure management services (IMS), and rest comes from application development & other services. The company operates in India (75% of rev.) & USA (25% of rev.) geographies. Glodyne expects strong growth prospects for its Tech IMS space for next few years, together with strong traction seen in subsidiaries ensures strong growth visibility for FY12E and FY13E. As per various studies, while in general offshoring services have grown rapidly in past one decade, the services pertaining to remote management and maintenance of core IT infrastructure has been rather slow to gain popularity. As of now, only about 7 percent of the addressable market is being estimated to have been captured. Studies by Mckinsey have suggested that shifts in customer attitudes and economics could trigger rapid growth for these services.

The company presently has over 200 clients spread across India and USA. Approximately 75% of the clients are located in India. Top 20 clients contributes about 37% to the company’s topline.. As per the management, over 90% of the company’s business comes from renewal contracts. In India, the company operates over 100 service support centers with 10 sales and marketing offices spread over all regions. The government departments and public sector enterprises comprise the largest client segment. On the technical front, the stock will witness a strong breakout once it is able to cross the level of Rs.463. Buying is advised above this level for a target of Rs.487 and Rs.510. The time frame of the trade would be around 15-20 trading sessions.

DERIVATIVE PICK 08 04 2011

• FEDERAL BANK (CASH – Rs.420) : The stock is in a strong bull grip and once it is able to cross the crucial resistance level of Rs.425, it will gain further momentum. Buying is advised above Rs.425 for a target of Rs.432 and Rs.438. Higher target of Rs.422-444 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.417 should be kept.

Market Outlook 08 04 2011

Nothing much happened as far as Nifty movement was concerned as it traded around 5900 for most part of the session. It was almost a repeat of yesterday’s session as index heavyweights witnessed churning while momentum was concentrated within the non-index mid caps. Fertilizer stocks were in focus mid session as sudden burst of activity lifted most of these stocks. Chambal was up almost 9% on heavy volumes while others like NFCL, RCF and Tata Chem too gained significantly. The gainers list was almost completely made up of mid caps and included stocks like India Hotels, India Info, IVRCL Infra, Unitech, GMR Infra, ABG Ship, Tulip, Biocon, Hotel Leela, Triveni, Srei Infra, MLL, Aban and LITL. Cairn continued to lose ground as uncertainty hits its takeover by Vedanta. Sesa Goa too lost ground after gaining sharply over past 3 sessions. Some of the other losers for the day were Onmobile, NTPC, ONGC, OFSS, Bhushan Steel, TCS, Ultratech and APIL.

Overall, the undercurrent remained positive despite a minor negative tick in the frontline indices. Nifty continues to trade around 5900 and its been 4 sessions now that Nifty has remained in a tight range around 5900. We might see some movement either ways in a day or two as narrow range is most likely to be followed by expansion in this range. Dip below 5850 could mean a minor breakdown to around 5750-5770 while sustained trades past 5930-40 could mean a continuation of the uptrend to around 6050-6080. Meanwhile mid caps continue to make hay. GMR Infra broke out above Rs 42.50 and could be headed towards Rs 48-49. HPCL is showing positive technical pattern and could target Rs 385-390 over next few sessions. Tata Chem ( above 361) and HDFC could also seek higher levels. Sugar stocks are witnessing positive buildup and decent upside is likely in counters like Renuka, Balrampur and Baja Hind.

Nifty has support around 5840-50 and then around 5770 while fresh upside momentum is likely above 5935.

Stock To Trade 06 04 2011

• BRFL :- TA Turtle breakout in BRFL 30 mins chart. Buy with stop loss below 270.
• CIPLA :- NR7 pattern in Cipla. Buy above 322, Sell below 317.

Nifty, Ascending Triangle targets achieved, What Next?

The Nifty had broken out of an ascending triangle (see March 29 post, do a search for ascending tiangle or March29. Search is on the top, right side) with a target of 5930 approx. This target has been achieved. What happens after a pattern target is achieved? There is no law which says that markets have to stop moving up once upside targets touched. But, a target has technical significane. It is likely that the Nifty will consolidate around 5930 before it begins another move, up or down.

Trend: The trend is up with prices well above 200 and 50 day averages. Trading becomes simple when we have a confirmed trend. Buy on dips, buy on consoliadtion. Expect intra day corrections since this is a move with strong momentum.

What about a reversal of trend? Well, what about it? Reversal of an up trend usually takes place when markets begin a process of distribution. There are no signs as of now.

STOCK TO WATCH 06 04 2011

RALLIS
Present Price – Rs.1420, Projected Price – Rs.1485( First Target), Rs.1550 (Second Target), Holding – 1 Month

Rallis India, a Tata Group company, is a leading manufacturer of generic agrochemicals, otherwise known as pesticides, in India. It also sells other farm inputs such as agricultural seeds and plant growth nutrients. Although definitive recent data on the Indian pesticides industry is unavailable, it is generally believed that in the domestic market for branded agrochemicals, Rallis occupies the second position in terms of sales, next only to Bayer CropScience. United Phosphorus (UPL) reports higher sales from the Indian market, but its sales include a substantial amount from pesticide technicals. Hence, in the branded formulations market, Rallis is believed to have higher sales.

Rallis redefined its DNA as a focused agrochemical player with complementary strengths in both manufacturing and distribution. Its business model rests on a strong USP of its ‘Farmer Connect’ and multiple relationships with global innovators. It has carefully turned around its manufacturing investments into a complementary global outsourcing model to provide predictable business growth.

Rallis’ forte is its century old association with the Indian farming community. Focused group discussions and regular interactions with farmers provides indepth market knowledge which it incorporates in its marketing and product avenues. Rallis has adopted a two pronged strategy to grow its domestic business – Product launches through Own (in-house research) and via Strategic alliances. Performance of new product launches are evaluated through its “Innovation turnover Index” tool - benchmarked at 25% of sales. Rallis is today one of India’s leading agrochemical companies having a comprehensive portfolio of pesticides and plant nutrients for Indian farmers. With more than 60 brands under its belt - Pesticides accounts for 95% of the total turnover, while seeds and plant nutrients represent the balance. It has not only the largest agrochemicals capacity in the country (10,000Mt of technical grade pesticides and 30,000tpa of formulations) but also a widespread distribution network covering ~80% of India’s districts with more than ~1500 distributors that reach over 30,000 retail counters. On the technical front, the stock is in a strong uptrend and the current decline gives a fresh buying opportunity.

Market Outlook for 06 04 2011

Market encountered some profit taking at higher levels as Nifty saw intraday dip to around 5850. But, strong momentum helped indices to recover all its intraday losses as Nifty bounced back to close above 5900. The mid caps and small caps extended their rally by one more session. Banking heavyweights led the dip earlier in the day as stocks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and ICICI witnessed some selling pressure at higher levels. But, the mid cap banking names attracted strong trading interest as stocks like Vijaya bank, Andhra bank, Uco Bank, Dena
Bank, Syndicate Bank, IOB an Indian Bank moved up sharply on good volumes. In fact, the list of gainers was made up of mainly the mid cap counters. Onmobile extended its gains further as it surged almost 11%. Some other top gainers were Alok Ind, Patel Engg, Sesa Goa, Bajaj Hind, Moser Baer, Jindal SW Holding, Mundra Port and Tulip. HUL, M&M, DLF and Havells were amongst day’s top losers. Overall, the undercurrent was positive despite slight negative undertone in Nifty. Even Nifty did well to claw its way back above 5900.

There was some intraday hiccup in the ongoing up move as Nifty lost almost 50 points mid session. But strong buying in stocks like TCS, Tata Motors and metal heavyweights helped indices to erase all losses towards the close. Mid caps are beginning to join the party as traders get more confident about the upmove. Mid cap banks that look good for decent upside are Syndicate Bank, Indian Bank, Dena Bank, IOB and Allahabad Bank. JSW Steel has given a breakout on daily charts and is likely to arget Rs 1040-1050. Others that have positive patterns
are IVRCL Infra, PFC( above 254), L&T, Tata Motors and REC( above 261).

Nifty has support around 5830-40 and then around 5770 while some resistance is around 5950-65.

Stock To trade 01 04 2011

• ITC :- TA Turtle upside breakout in ITC 30 mins chart. Buy with stop loss below 176.
• CAIRN INDIA :- NR7 pattern in Cairn daily chart. Buy above 353, Sell below 348.

And then there were Eight!

Wow! The Nifty has recorded eight consecutive days of gains. Yet, as I have written earlier, this is not a record since in the 2009 bull market, there were 14 consecutive days of gains. So, eight and still counting! The Nifty was choppy today, thanks to the F&O expiry which was scheduled for the day. F&O expiry days are not good days for trading. There was an intraday dip of almost 100 points – a buy on dips opportunity. Such opportunities are coming every day, with the Nifty usually falling 40-50 points intraday before recovering. Manage the risk in Long Positions. With every passing day, there is increased risk in long positions. It is possible that markets can keep on going up day after day, but sooner or later we will have a correction, and, a dip. Traders should ensure that they cut their positions when trend indicators on their charts give a sell signal. Trend indicators include change of direction of ZeroLag MA (21 or 34) , MACD with 17,9,12, Ta-Trend crossover of trendline below signal line, TA-Insync 55-5 crossover of insync line from +45 to below, Trix crosses below its

signal line…. The intra day charts should be at least 15 minutes and higher.

DERIVATIVE PICK

• SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE (CASH – Rs.796): The stock has almost on the verge of breaking out of a bullish pattern in the daily charts. Buying is advised above Rs.805 for a target of Rs.818 and Rs.829. Higher targets of Rs.838 and Rs.849 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.789 should be kept.

• JP ASSOCIATES (CASH – Rs.92.80): Buying is advised above Rs.93.50 for a target of Rs.96 and Rs.98. Higher targets of Rs.102 and Rs.105 is also possible. Stop loss of Rs.88.75 should be kept. The time frame of the trade would be around 8-10 trading sessions for the higher target.

Market Outlook 01 04 2011

Markets celebrated India’s march to WC Finals by extending its amazing rally to eighth successive day. The trading session had its ups and downs as did the Semi Finals match against archrivals Pakistan. Nifty zoomed up by more than 80 points before giving up all its gains later in the day. But, short covering and some 31st March buying by institutions lifted the indices once again towards the close. Nifty ended the session as well as the March series of derivatives at 5833. Nifty gained 570 points in the March series, more than 10% rise. In the last 8 days itself Nifty has put on almost 500 points. Again, it was an all round show though IT heavyweights hogged the limelight. IT index was up 2% as strong rally was seen in TCS and Infosys. Banks witnessed some profit taking at higher levels as Bankex finished the day in negative territory. Some of the top gainers for the session were Adani, RPower, Hexaware, Cummins, HDIL, Reliance Infra, Welcorp, Polaris, Sobha, Apollo Tyres, DLF, Bajaj Auto, ITC, FT and Hero Honda. SBI led the list of losers by shedding more than 3% on heavy volumes.

Some other losers were Indusind Bank, Jet Airways, ABB, HCC, Yes Bank, Educomp, Onmobile, IOB, Ambuja Cement and IVRCL. It was an amazingly good series for the bulls as the sharp rally seen over past 8 sessions may not have been comprehended by even the staunchest bulls. Month of March that is notorious for its bearish undertones provided much needed relief to the eleaguered bulls as Nifty gained around 10%. Nifty is now trading above 5800 and the momentum indicators are now in overbought territory. Nifty has moved past the expected resistance zone of 5730-5770 and now this band should provide short term support to any decline. The rally has been extremely sharp and it would be difficult to take a call on resistances but now the immediate threat to the rally is placed around 5900. Banks have been the leaders thus far and today’s behavior of Banking heavyweights suggests some halt in the uptrend. We are entering a new series and new month and would need to take a fresh guard as far as trading is concerned. Some stocks that have seen fresh breakouts are RPower, HDIL, Hexaware, Hero Honda( above 1610), FT( above 890), Exide( above 143) and RIL( above 1055). Nifty is now trading above crucial levels of 5750-70 and this should provide strong short term support while resistance is seen around 5900.

Stock To Trade 30 03 2011

• IOC :- Bullish reversal candlestick pattern and upside breakout in IOC daily chart. Buy with stoploss below 320.
• Andhra Bank :- TA Turtle breakout in Andhra Bank. Buy with stoploss below 146.

Nothing to worry, Nifty keeps on going up

The Nifty closed higher for the sixth day in a row. This is not impossible, since the Nifty has closed higher for 14 days in a row, in the 2007 bull market. I do not know if we will replicate that record, but markets can do anything. As traders, we must learn the art of following the market rather than trying to dictate (to the market). The chart below shows the head and shoulder in the Nifty, giving a target of 6100 approx. The pattern has an up sloping neckline, not clean, but then we cannot have price patterns made to order. The second chart shows an ascending triangle in the Nifty, two resistance points at the same level, and two support points which are ascending – this is a perfect pattern, so we can go for it. Pattern targets here are 5900, but the targets are just that – probable estimates.

There is no need for levels. Watch your charts. try to be with lower time frames – 5 minute, 15 minute and so on. If a trend indicator gives a sell signal then exit positions in that security. This is a safer way to trade than trying to bully the market into some level or the other.

INVESTMENT PICK

KAVERI SEED ( KSCL)
Present Price – Rs.321.25
Projected Price – Rs.360 ( First target ), Rs.405 ( Second Target)

KSCL Established in 1974 by Mr GV Bhaskar Rao (an agricultural science graduate), Kaveri is one of the oldest seeds companies in India. Kaveri started out as a provider of varietal maize, sunflower and paddy seeds, and later graduated to developing more productive hybrid seeds across different crop segments. Till recently, Kaveri’s business was largely focused around the southern and western states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. In a clear reflection of Kaveri’s competitiveness and its strong R&D capabilities, Kaveri is among the
top three companies in hybrid maize, hybrid sunflower, pearl millet and a variety of rice segments in its representative regions.

Kaveri’s key product segments include maize, sunflower, BT cotton (new product launch), paddy,
pearl millet and its organic food business, Microtek. Kaveri Seed ( KSCL) is an interesting small-sized play on the expected boom in the hybrid seeds industry in India. Kaveri is one of the oldest players in the Indian organized hybrid seeds market and among the strongest in the Indian corn and sunflower markets. Given the high entry barriers in the hybrid seeds business, strong indigenous R&D capabilities are the key to success, and Kaveri has focused on acquiring strong R&D capabilities over the years with a smart choice of “right crops”.

KSCL has been in the business of production, processing and marketing of seeds for over two decades. It has a pan- India presence with a comprehensive product portfolio and a strong R&D team. Kaveri Seeds has built a comprehensive product portfolio of commercial crops in India. The company has developed many new hybrid seeds and a strong pan-India distribution network, making it a significant player. Over the past few years, Kaveri Seeds has diversified its product portfolio, which now includes maize, cotton, sunflower, paddy, bajra, jowar, grain sorghum and vegetables. However, the main products are maize, cotton, sunflower and bajra.
Kaveri Seeds has higher operating margin compared with peers due to its presence in crops where demand is higher and realisations are better. Looking ahead, the margin should improve further due to the contribution from hybrids that were launched recently and which have found high market acceptance.

Kaveri has acquired critical mass and is well placed to move on to the next growth trajectory. Till recently, Kaveri was a regional player with focus on corn and sunflower, and footprint largely limited to Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Kaveri is now working on expanding its geographical footprint to North India as well as entering newer crop segments like hybrid paddy, BT cotton and hybrid vegetables. While this transformation offers exciting growth possibilities, the management has indicated 20-25% CAGR in revenues and faster profit growth over FY11-13 Kaveri’s strong R&D focus is one of its key competitive advantages. This is clearly reflected in Kaveri’s strong brand equity and high market share in corn and sunflower segments, and enhances confidence in the company’s ability to successfully target newer crops like hybrid paddy and cotton. It has an Equity Capital of Rs.13.70 cr with a strong Book Value of Rs.110. Last paid dividend was 20%. In the first nine months ended FY11, it reported sales of Rs.216 cr and a Net Profit of Rs.37.49 cr. We expect the company to report EPS of Rs.32 for FY11. and around Rs.45 plus for FY12. The current price of Rs.321.25 leaves ample scope for appreciation.
Buying is advised for medium to long term investment with a time frame of 3 to 6 months.

Market Outlook for 30 03 2011

Bulls continued to have a great spell in the middle as Nifty gained for sixth consecutive session. Nifty was up almost 80 points mid session before some profit taking pared some of the intra day gains. Still, Nifty finished the day above 5700 at 5736. Bharti led the list of index gainers as it posted gains of around 3%. HDFC, ONGC, DLF and Sterlite were some of the other top contributors to index. Banks too had yet another good day at office as Axis Bank led the list of banking gainers. Some of the top gainers overall were Max, Mphasis, DCHL, Srei Infra, Neyvelli, RCom, Sesa Goa, Allahabad Bank, Onmobile, IVRCL, Bata, BPCL, Maruti, DrReddy and Yes bank. Tech Mahindra encountered some late selling as the stock plummeted over 4.5%. Some others on the losing list were Moser Baer, Sterlite Tech, HOEC, IFCI, Welcorp, Tata Global and Ruchi Soya.

Nifty continued its dream run as it now trades within the zone that could provide some stiff resistance. HDFC faces some resistance around 690 and sustained trades above 690 could mean a strong breakout that could open up potential targets of around Rs 740-750. DLF is also on the verge of breakout and sustained trades above 255 could potentially take it to around 280-282. Some other stocks that have positive patterns are Sesa Goa( above 285), OnMobile, Crompton( above 275), Indian Bank, BOI, JSPL and JSW Steel( above 926).

Nifty is now trading within the resistance band at 5740-5775 while support is seen around 5650-65 and then 5610-20.

Stock To Trade 29 03 2011

• INDIAN BANK :- TA Turtle upside breakout in Indian Bank 30 mins. Buy with stop loss below 224.
• Apollo Tyre :- NR7 bar pattern in Apollo Tyre. Buy above 69.50, Sell below 68.

Five days of gains in Nifty, consolidation likely

We had a wide range day (WR) seen on Friday when the Nifty had a range of 140 points (including the gap). This is the widest range in many days, hence it qualifies as a WR7 (widest range in 7 days). What happens after such wide range days? Markets will usually consolidate giving rise to noise and choppiness. The correct way to trade such noise is by using lower time frames.

What is the trend? We measure the intermediate trend is different ways: (1) The TA-Insync(55-5) is up (2) Zero Lag Moving Average 34 is moving up (3) Ichimoku is in an uptrend with the red line above the blue line. Now, readers should use any one of the three methods to measure the trend. If you use Zero Lag then check the direction. Moving up means UP trend, and, moving down means downtrend.

My point is: trend is up, no matter what you use. Second point is: do not fight the trend. If you feel that the rally is unjustified, then stay away, but selling short is not a good idea. Traders can take short side trades only when their intra day charts give a short signal in any of the above trend methods. Volume should be low since the short trades will go against the trend. If the trade appears to work out, then add volume. The correct trade is to buy on corrections. use 5 minute or 15 minute charts to get buy signals from any of the three methods. When you get this siganal, go for it.

Is the Nifty making an inverted head and shoulder pattern? Answer is: Yes. The neckline is sloping up, currently at 5700. A close above this number will confirm the pattern. I will give the chart on tuesday evening.

Market Outlook for 29 03 2011

The week began on a happy note as markets had a steady day. In fact, Sensex as well as Nifty briefly went past the psychological level of 19000 and 5700 respectively. Autos, Capital Goods and Banks had a good day while some profit taking was seen in Healthcare, Metals and IT stocks. Index heavyweights that helped the indices move higher were Bharti, L&T, IDFC, Tata Motors and HUL. LIC Hsg however hogged the limelight by posting intraday gain of around 8% amidst huge volumes. Some other prominent gainers were Sterlite Tech, GT Offshore, Noida Toll, IDBI, LITL, IVRCL, TVS Motors, IRB, Dena Bank, Vijaya Bank, Sintex, Godrej Ind and Federal Bank. Auribindo Pharma was the biggest loser as it shed more than 6%. Some others that lost were Pantaloon, Piramal Health, Sun Pharma, Core, Jain Irrigations, Suzlon, Unitech and GMDC.

It was fifth successive day of gains for markets as Nifty moved towards 5700. In fact, Nifty has gained around 350 points over last 5 sessions. There could be a brief consolidation/resistance as market grapples with twin psychological resistances of 200DMA as well 5700/19000. 5735-5770 could provide stiff resistance to the uptrend and one need to be careful around these levels as far as long positions in Nifty are concerned. Stock- specific moves could hog the limelight even as indices consolidate/correct. The mid cap banking counters could see action as technically some of these like Andhra Bank, Federal, OBC, Uco and Dena Bank are looking positive. IFCI has given a breakout above 55 and could target Rs 61-62 if it sustains above 55. Auto stocks like Bajaj Auto, TVS, Ecsorts are also showing positive intent. LIC hsg closed at almost 4 months’ high and sustained trades above 215 could take it to around Rs 240-245.

Nifty faces stiff resistance around 5730-5750 while support is seen around 5620-30 and then around 5545- 60.

Stock To WAtch 28 03 2011

• PFC :- Bullish reversal 3 white solders pattern in PFC daily chart. Buy with stop loss below 240.
• GTOFFSHORE :- NR7 pattern in Great Offshore from last 3 days. Buy above 248.50, Sell below 241.50

BIG UP MOVE IN NIFTY BRINGS INDEX ABOVE 5600 RESISTANCE

On Thursday, the Nifty made an NR7 day. In our letter we suggested that Friday may see a trending move and traders should follow the intra day trend. Friday’s big rally in the Nifty has taken the Index above 5600. It has also changed the trend of TA-Insync which we track to identify the intermediate trend. Now, the Nifty has broken out of the 5400 – 5600 range, this time on the upside. On Monday, the Index was trading below the range support of 5400. The Market has given two moves out of the range, first down, then upside break on Friday.

Will this breakout be sustained? The Nifty has rallied from 5350 to 5650 in just five trading days. After such strong moves, markets are likely to consolidate. We will wait for the process of consolidation. If the Nifty moves up after the soon-to-come consolidation, then the trend certainly changes to up.

DERIVATIVE PICK 28 03 2011

• AXIS BANK (CASH – Rs.1364.95) : The stock has closed on a very strong note and after a very long timehas given a bullish breakout by piercing and closing above the crucial resistance line. The 14 day RSI toohas broken out of an ascending triangle pattern and has crossed the crucial 60 level giving strength to theprice pattern breakout. Buying is advised above Rs.1371 for a target of Rs.1394 and Rs.1412. Higher targetof Rs.1435 and Rs.1452 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.1334 should be kept. The time frame of the tradefor the final target would be around 8-10 trading sessions.
  

• JINDAL SOUTHWEST HOLDINGS (CASH – Rs.944) : The stock has closed on a strong note and we areof the view that the worst for the stock is over. Buying is advised above Rs.958 for a target of Rs.982 andRs.999. Higher target of Rs.1029 and Rs.1062 is also possible. The explosive move would come only aboveRs.982. Stop Loss of Rs.919 should be kept.
  

Market Outlook FOR 28 03 2011

Markets opened with a huge positive gap primarily on account of positive global cues and the best past of Friday’s trading was that bulls maintained a firm grip on the whole day’s proceedings and managed to closed on a very strong note. Stock markets mimicked Indian cricket team's all round performance as bulls went on rampage sending stocks across sectors rallying. Heavyweight stocks like Infosys, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries anchored the BSE Sensex and the S&P CNX Nifty to two-month closing highs. The market breadth was strong. All the sectoral indices on BSE logged gains. Auto stocks were in demand on renewed buying. Banking stocks extended recent gains after the government tabled banking sector amendment bill in parliament. Metals stocks extended Thursday's gain on hopes of higher demand as Japan begins redevelopment after a devastating earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. Software stocks were in demand on encouraging US tech earnings overnight. Fertiliser shares edged higher on reports of higher demand for fertilizer in the upcoming monsoon season.

Nifty will now have to cross the crucial resistance of 200 DMA of Spot Nifty which lies at 5688. There could be a small pause at this level which is just 30 odd points from the current level. We would advise investors and traders to watch this crucial level closely as one can expect short term reaction from this level.

However, any short term correction should be used as a buying opportunity The immediate resistance for Nifty future lies at 5725 and 5765 levels whereas it has short term supports at
5645 and 5610 levels.

Stock to watch 25 03 2011

• BPCL :- TA Turtle breakout in BPCL 30 min chart. Buy with stop loss below 570.
• LIC Hsg Fin :- NR7 bar pattern in LIC Housing Finance. Buy above 200.50, Sell below 197.

Three days of gains, Nifty is now at point of breakout: will the Index move up?

The Nifty closed at 5522, up another 42 points, giving the index three consecutive days of gains. We can identify the resistance levels for the Index somewhere around 5550. If the Nifty were to close above this resistance, then we will have a breakout on the upside. The market is certainly giving many whipsaws, with periods of sudden optimism and pessimism. This is the nature of the trading range. When prices start moving up in the range, we have an impression that everything is going to be fine, see prices are moving up.
When prices start moving down, we get pessimistic – range will break down. What actually is going on is – just noise inside the range. A decisive trend emerges when prices move out of the range. Now, the Nifty did go below 5400 so we had a decisive breakdown of the range. Then what happened? Well, the index turned back, move above the half way mark at 5500 and is now currently higher than 5500. This raises the question: are we confronted with a false breakdown? With some regret, there is no clear answer to this question. The Market itself will tell us if the earlier breakdown was a false move. We have a pivot high identified earlier – 5535. A close above 5535 will give us a higher high. A close above 5600 will give us a confirmed breakout on the upside, but, then, even this can fail.
What happens if we have two failed breakouts - one on the downside, then one on the upside? Well, this would certainly be a choppy market – we have to accept such movements and hope that the choppiness will end soon.

Nifty Levels: Today (Thursday) was another NR7 day. We can usually expect a trust after NR7 days. Therefore, if the market begins to move up or down, go with the flow, chances are there will be a trending day.

DERIVATIVE PICK

DENA BANK (CASH – Rs.99.50) : The stock is on the verge of an ascending triangle pattern which is bullish by nature. Buying is advised above Rs.101 for a target of Rs.105 and Rs.108. Higher target of Rs.110-112 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.93.85 should be kept. The time frame of the trade would be around 12-13 trading days.

Market Outlook 25 03 2011

It was a steady day at the bourses as Nifty traded above 5500 for majority of the session. Decent showing was seen in almost all sectors with Realty and banking leading the way. Unitech was up almost 10% on very good volumes. Many mid caps again hogged the limelight. There was strong buying in stocks like Videocon, Orbit, IBReal, Sobha and Dish TV. Auto and metals also witnessed value buying at lower levels. Ashok Leyland, Hindalco, Welcorp and TVS Motors were the major gainers from these two sectors. Some other prominent gainers were Aban, Karnataka Bank, Pantaloon, IDFC, ABB, Tech mahindra, REC, GVK, Kotak and Yes bank. Some of the yesterday’s gainers met with profit taking and shed some weight. The list includes Tata Com, Lupin, Havells, GAIL and Renuka sugars.
Nifty gained for the third consecutive day which is a rare occurrence in the present volatile scenario. But, that also means that Nifty is now staring at strong resistance zone of around 5540-50. Nifty has not managed a close above 5540 in current month despite few attempts. Nifty has seen base building over last two months and as we did mentioned earlier also, close above 5540 and then a decent follow up could open up 150-200 points upside. Again, banks are the key and Bank Nifty is on the verge of a sharp and strong breakout above 11200. Realty counters are showing interesting patterns and stocks like Sobha, HDIL, Orbit, IB Real and Unitech could see substantial upside once they manage to sustain current levels. Dish TV closed above Rs 64 and could target Rs 71-72 over next few sessions. Ambuja Cement managed to close above 133-135 resistance zone after a gap of about 10 weeks and likely to target 146-149. Banks that have bullish patterns are Kotak, Indusind and Yes Bank.
Nifty now has support around 5460-70 and then around 5420 while strong momentum is likely once Nifty sustains above 5550-65.

STOCK TO TRADE 24 03 2011

• Bhushan Steel :- NR7 pattern in Bhushan Steel. Buy above 441, Sell below 433.
• Jet Airways :- Overbought TA Insync in Jet Airways. Sell with stop loss above 450.

Nifty rally continues, still in range

Yesterday, Tuesday, was an NR7 day. Today, the Nifty opened steady, then moved up throughout the day to close at the top of the day’s range. The message is: After an NR7 day, a trending moev can be expected. With today’s gains, the Nifty stands at 5480. This is within the original 5400 – 5600 range. We did see a pivot high at 5535 which means that the Index could now face resistance around 5535. Earlier we had a pattern of lower lows when the Nifty came down to 5348 just two days ago. If the Index closes above 5535 then we have a pattern of higher highs. This has not yet taken place, which means we are simply discussing what could come about if the Nifty rally continues.

Markets are certainly in some kind of a no trade zone. There are day trades on both sides – long and short. But, taking a position is not rewarding inside a trading zone. However, the Nifty did breakdown below 5400 and closed below this number for two days. Therefore, we have to take a bearish bias for the markets. Trading then is to be on the short side, with a stop above 5535. Remember that this is the cash nifty, not futures.

STOCK TO WATCH

BGR ENERGY
Present Price – Rs.470.95, Projected Price – Rs.510-515

BGR Energy (BGR) conducts its business under two main segments, turnkey engineering projects (TEP) and equipment & systems. Besides engineering and technology skill sets, EPC and BoP contracts tend to be project management intensive.
The company enjoys a huge order book of Rs.11000 cr plus. The company’s order backlog is likely to provide revenue visibility for ~4 years, second only to Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) in the capital goods sector. Superior project management skills, which BGR has garnered over the past few years by executing complex EPC and BoP projects (130 contracts in India and abroad), provides comfort on the execution. Over the next 2-3 years there is likely to be strong revenue/earnings visibility for BGR and it is likely to emerge as one of the leading full service BoP contractors.

On the technical front, the stock has gone up today and formed a Long White Candle that too with impressive volume expansion which is a strong sign that bulls are back in this counter. We expect the stock to reach a minimum target of Rs.510. The time frame of the investment would be around 10-12 trading sessions.

DERIVATIVE PICK

• ICICI BANK (CASH – Rs.1040.30) : The stock has shown a lot of resilience on days when the market is in a bearish mode. The stock has formed a long White Candle on strong volume expansion. Buying is advised above Rs.1045 for a target of Rs.1058 and Rs.1072. Higher target of Rs.1086-88 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.1024 should be kept.

• PNB (CASH – Rs.1110.35) : The stock after a long consolidation between Rs.1040 and Rs.1113 is now ready for an upward breakout. Buying is advised above Rs.1115 for a target of Rs.1127 and Rs.1139. Higher target of Rs.1144-1148 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.999 should be kept.

Market Outlook for 24 03 2011

Markets opened with a slight negative bias in line with the other Asian markets but gained momentum as the day progressed. Early in the session Nifty moved above 5425 and remained above that for the remaining part of the session. It was a combined strength of many heavyweights that propelled Nifty to higher levels. So, we had positive momentum in RIL, Bharti, SBI, ICICI Bank, IDFC and Bhel that sustained throughout the session. Bank Nifty gained around 1.7% and even the Realty counters had a positive day. But the main activity was confined to some mid cap stocks like HOEC, DCHL, Tata Comm and BGR Energy. Some other prominent gainers were IB Real, Pantaloon, MLL, Sesa Goa, Cipla,Hexaware, Indusind Bank, Havells, JP Associates, PFC, Orchid and REC. Few stocks did witness some selling and prominent amongst these were Escorts, TV18, NCC, ZEE, Jet Airways, HPCL and Neyvelli. Volumes were better particularly in the top gaining counters. As suggested yesterday Nifty did move up steadily once it was above the immediate resistance at 5425 and closed almost at the highest point of the day. This suggests that the 5350-75 support has held for now and we are once again in the sideways range between 5375 and 5570. Bank Nifty has once again led the way and it is approaching breakout level of 11200 again. Bank Nifty has seen strong base building/consolidation for past 10 weeks now and a sustained breakout beyond 11200 could mean another 10-12% up move. ICICI bank closed just around 1040 and followup buying could see it move to around 1075-1080. Indusind Bank is looking good and seem to have formed a decent base. Stock could be headed towards 275-280. BGR energy is another counter that is showing positive intent and has once again moved past 465. Stock could target Rs 510 if it manages to stay above 450. Gail, Petronet and DLF are also looking good for decent gains over next 5-7 trading sessions. Nifty would find decent support around 5415-25 now and then around 5375while 5530-5550 should provide resistance as of now.

Stock To Trade 18 03 2011

• Federal Bank :- TA Turtle upside breakout Federal Bank. Buy with stop loss below 370.
• Sobha :- NR7 bar pattern in Sobha Developers. Buy above 264, Sell below 258.

Locked in 100 point range, Nifty waits for direction

The Market is alternating between up and down days. After yesterday’s rally, the Nifty confounded all trend traders by actually faling down, closing today at the 5450 level.

The Nifty is now locked in a trading range between 5450 and 5550 – this is just a 100 point range, quite the narrowest range in many months. Traders should stay away, avoid trading inside this range. A close above 5550 will suggest a breakout on theupside while a close below 5450 will gie the signs of a breakdown. Just wait and watch. What about investors? Well, if the idea is to invest for at least 3 years, then the current levels are as good as, say, levels 10% lower. If the purpose is to obtain trading gains over the next few months, then buying is not suggested. The Nifty is in a bear market (the correction for the up move from 2200 to 6300, qualifies as a bear market). Lower levels

should come in, although we cannot say when.

What if we are wrong? There is no need to panic, since a breakout above 5550 will give us signals of buying, at least as a short term trade.
What about Japan, Crude, trouble in Bahrain, political problems in India, ….. ?
Well, the Indian market has withstood all of these issues. Thus, we should ignore the news and go with our charts. The charts tell us to wait for a range breakout, so, patience!

DERIVATIVE PICK

BHEL ( CASH – Rs.1964) : The stocks has formed a Bullish Engulfing pattern in the daily charts and as the name suggests has strong bullish implications. Buying is advised above Rs.1966 for a target of Rs.1994 and Rs.2010. Higher targets of Rs.2025 and Rs.2042 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.1929 should be kept.

Market Outlook for 18 03 2011

Markets opened in the negative territory primarily on account of negative global cues but still managed to show the resilience as the cuts were not deep. Political uncertainity because of the Wikileaks and concerns on rising interest rate environment because of rate hikes of 25 bps both on Repo and Reverse Repo saw some unwinding of positions. Banking majors like SBI, ICICI and Axis Bank saw their share prices drifting lower in a slow manner throughout the day. Other important stocks like Infosys, Maruti, Tata Motors and Dr Reddy also were on the top of losers category. Reliance ADAG group stocks like Reliance Capital and Reliance Infra saw some buying from interested quarters and were marginally up by apprx 2% each. Other stocks like BHEL, Titan and Asian Paints were the gainers primarily because of fund buying.

We are of the clear view that markets here in India have shown strong resilience in spite of several problems both on the domestic front and global arena and hence the bias is clearly on the long side. One should attempt to buy dips and once the Nifty moves past 5550, we could see an easy 100-125 points upmove till 5670 where the 200 DMA lies. Select midcap stocks like VIP Industries, Asian Paints, Tata Elxsi, TTK Prestige, Talwalkars and BF Utilities where fund interest is high could see some decent rise in the coming days because of NAV propping as the financial year end approaches.

Nifty has strong support around 5448 and 5400 levels whereas resistance lies at 5499 and 5525 levels. Trade with a positive bias and buy on dips as long as 5400 level of Nifty is held.

Stock to trade 16 03 2011

• GLAXO :- TA Turtle breakout in GLAXO. Sell with stop loss above 2105.
• Andhra Bank :- NR7 pattern in Andhra Bank. Buy above 133.50, Sell below 131.

Nifty trading at its lower end of trading range

Nifty Watch:- Today Nifty opened at 5393 with a huge gap down of 159 points and touches its low at 5375. After that Nifty find some support from bullish and move up at 5504 with an increase of 129 points and finally closed at 5461 with a gain of 65 points to its day open.
Nifty remained in its large trading range (5400 to 5600). but trading at its lower end at 5400. This suggests that a breakdown below 5400 resumes the bear market.

Trend:- The short term trend is up. Below 5400 the short term trend will down. The Intermediate trend remains down. TA Insync (55-5) is has been in an uptrend. It is moving up at 32.37. Nifty is very near to its overbought level. This suggests that Nifty will move down very soon.

Level:- Looking for support first at 5500 and then at 5400 . Resistance comes at 5600.
Summary:- Nifty in a trading in a large trading range(5400-5600). Market is very choppy. We strongly advise investors to stay away the market.

DERIVATIVE PICK 16 03 2011

• RELIANCE ( CASH – Rs.1037.25) : After a very long time, Reliance Industries has clearly displayed leadership status pulling the market from the morning lows singlehandedly. Buying is advised above Rs.1050 for a target of Rs.1062 and Rs.1074. Higher targets of Rs.1083-1085 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.1029 should be kept. The time frame of the trade would be around 7-8 trading sessions.

• BHUSAN STEEL ( CASH – Rs.437.55) : The stock has shown a lot of strength and the counter saw buying form operators and funds in a big way. Buying is advised above Rs.448 for a target of Rs.456 and Rs.465. Higher target of Rs.476-478 is also possible. Stop Loss of Rs.437 should be kept. The time frame of the trade would be around 7-8 trading sessions.

Market Outlook 16 03 2011

Indian market was an island of relative calm amidst crumbling global indices. Taken in isolation one would be tempted to believe that market collapsed as it opened almost 150 points lower and closed almost 1.5% lower. But, if one just looks around the globe it would appear that Indian markets held up nicely even as the other Asian markets lost around 4%. Japanese market was down over 12% as life came to a standstill on growing concerns about nuclear radiation spread. Even the European markets were trading lower and DAX was down almost 5%. RIL led the rebound again as Nifty rallied more than 100 points from the opening levels. Some profit taking and selling in the last 60 minutes pared almost half of the intraday gains as Nifty closed at 5450. RIL witnessed heavy volumes and was up almost 2.5% before finishing the day almost 1.9% higher at 1038. Tyre stocks were also in demand as rubber prices continued to dip. Apollo Tyres, MRF, JL Tyres and Ceat were up significantly on good volumes. Reliance Capital too managed to shrug off early morning blues and closed in the positive. Breadth was negative while volumes picked up as the day progressed. Nifty managed to close around 5450 despite global turbulence and has shown significant resilience over past couple of sessions. But, things may change if the global negative sentiments persist. Technically, Nifty was able to sustain above the intraday support zone of 5350-5370. Even on closing basis the supports were maintained. RIL continues to provide strong support and it’s good to see the stock building on momentum rather than struggle around resistance zones. The volumes are also good and it seems stock could be headed higher. Bhushan Steel is showing strength and is looking good for another 8-10% rise over next few sessions. But, The Auto and metal counters are not looking positive and may be headed lower. Bajaj Auto seems to be an exception and one could buy it on dips. Nifty has immediate support around 5415-20 while critical support lies at 5350-5375.